Thursday, November 05, 2009

Gloom and Boom, plus The Goracle

Check out my latest posts on "The Art of Contrarian Trading":

Gloom and Boom

The Goracle

1 comment:

Kishore said...

Carl, we are only 25 points shy of Dow 10,000. Repetitive celebrations are probably being dramatically reenacted on CNBC which, incidentaly, I stopped watching a few months back.

With all the great economic reports coming out, it looks more like a bubbly boom. What gloom and doom!?

The primary cause of the economic downturn is lack of demand because the consumer is maxed out on credit, has no money, and more and more people are without a job.

Increased productivity was not shared with the consumer through inreased job creation and increased wages. Instead jobs were sent overseas and US wages were lowered.

IMHO, today's report of increased productivity and lower labor costs is bad news as it means the gap between supply (productivity) and demand (consumption) has widened.

The above are not psychological observations but facts we see all around us.

For how long will the market ignore the facts. Everything is beong swept under the rug and the dollar is being crashed so we may still look good on paper. When the inhabitants of a country get poorer, it is a factual doom, not just a psycholoical gloom. In other words, media's "psychological" evaluations of gloom are not relevant for the current market. Moreover, who trusts the medai anymore? Not me!