Thursday, November 19, 2009

Guesstimates on November 19, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: The day session range estimate is 1093- 1105. At the bottom of this range the market will match the length of the last break and stand at midpoint support defined by that break. I expect to see this rally reach the 1126 level within a few days.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.60.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: There is still no sign of a top in the making. Next upside target is 1165. Meantime support is at 1075.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 525. This step upward will carry to 610.

7 comments:

extrader said...

Carl,

I dont disagree with ur upside target of 1120-1170... I think next year 2010, the market will retest the March lows, may not go down to 600's, but think 750 is very possible!

Good Luck

extrader said...

I think todays top will be in the range of 1099-1103... If we close near 1103 after 10.30am... I think this market will fall 20pts from 1103 over the next couple day(s).

jeff said...

Carl,

Still a very remote possibility you could be right, but a break of 1090 will kill any hope of 1126 anytime in the next few weeks.

Kishore said...

The early morning trading of today, and all the early signs of a down trend day show that the past two days of narrow range trading was not consolidation but rather distribution.

In other words, Humpty Dumpty was sitting on a wall. Now, should we expect a great fall and that all of the King's men and horses, like Ben Bernanake, would not be able to put Humpty Dumpty back together again??

extrader said...

1087 is MAX LOW for today!

John M said...

You may be right, Extrader, but I think we're destined to go lower than 1087 today.

Crazy days.

extrader said...

John M,

If we break below 1087, then the next support is at 1082... I think we would get a bounce from 1082