Monday, November 23, 2009

Guesstimates on November 23, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: The day session range estimate is 1096- 1112. I think the 1126 level will be reached within the next week or so.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.60. Support is at 43.25.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: Upside target at 1165 has been reached. Sentiment is very bullish. But there is still no convincing evidence for an imminent top. So I now think that continuation upward to 1230 is likely.

SLV - December Silver: The 1900 target has nearly been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 525. This step upward will carry to 610.


extrader said...


Nice call on your 1112 target for today... I didnt think it would get up that high... I was more around the gap fill at 1108!


me said...

I agree. I believe we have finished with 4th wave of 'C' and on the way (up) to 5th wave today (1st day), so I don't believe there will be a major resistant at 1120's. I believe it will go up to 1130's or higher by 1st week of December.

Vamsee said...

Do you see any consolidation from today's high by EOD or tomorrow? Or do you see the market heading straight to 1126?

Joe said...

This past week showed me again how difficult it is to be a contrarian trader. There was this temporary retreat since Tuesday and the bears came out with might across the media and blogosphere. It takes some emotional strength to stick to the bull side as we climb an enormous wall of worries. Even if models and common sense clearly show we're in e new long-term bull market, my emotions are clearly attracted by the bear's worry-mongering. And roar they do mightily. There is a reason why the majority is always wrong in the markets.

Kishore said...

Carl had correctly pointed out that the bullish sentiment was not yet strong enough to start a downtrend. The market only consolidated and continued the uptrend. But it did go down a bit to get the bears all excited and bears making predictions of a big drop. It turned out to be a bear trap.

However, on the weekly and daily charts Stochastics are showing a downward direction. So, the current rally is on a shorter time frame and will, therefore, fizzle out in favor of the daily and weekly charts. Nevertheless, shorting this market is only for the intrepid.

me said...

We have been on P1 wave (bull) since March 2009, and I believe this is the last leg up (5th) on P1 (up to 1150's). After this last leg up, I'll take on the bear side for awhile (months) for P2 (bear).

Aarpenn said...

Good call Carl. I went short at 1100 going against your call (which I rarely do), Ouch! I will keep an eye on the volume though, if it doesn't pick up as it moves towards your numbers (1126), I will short it again.

Great job!

me said...

There may be a short-lived pullback around 1126, perhaps 5-10 points.