Wednesday, November 04, 2009

Grasping the obvious

Here is a 60 minute bar chart showing e-mini day session trading. As a trader my job is to stay on the side of the market favored by the order flow. I want to be bullish and long when the market shows progressively higher trading areas, breaks and holds above previous highs, or puts in an unusually big, uncorrected rally on good volume. I want to be bearish and short in the opposite circumstances.

From this perspective here is what I see in the chart above. First, the pace of the drop from the 1099 high has been broken (declining trend channel) because the market has traded all day entirely above the channel's upper boundary. The market has also spent most of today's session trading above the last significant top on the way down (horizontal green dash line). Today's day's day session range has been entirely above yesterday's (purple dash ovals). These are all bullish indications. The only thing lacking now is a sustained, uncorrected up move on good volume. We may get that tomorrow.

In any case, I am now going to lean on the 1046 level, today's day session low thus far. As long as the market doesn't spend much time below there I shall expect a higher day session range tomorrow and continuation upward to 1120 or higher.

1 comment:

MaverickUK said...

Carl you have failed completely to grasp that the rally from March lows is over and the top is in. What today was is a relief rally - that is all - so that more sellers could come in higher up.