Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Guesstimates on November 25, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: The day session range estimate is 1106- 1116. I think the 1126 level will be reached within a few days.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.60. Support is at 43.25.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I have been leaning on resistance near 150. A New York close above 151.00 will mean that this resistance has failed and that the market is headed for 160.

Dollar-Yen: I am still betting that the 87.13 low will hold, but a close below 86.50 will mean that the market is headed down to 80.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: Sentiment is very bullish. But there is still no convincing evidence for an imminent top. I think that continuation upward to 1230 is likely.

SLV - December Silver: The 1900 target has nearly been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 525. This step upward will carry to 610.

17 comments:

me said...

The bull has a good chance of breaking out of the triangle today or Friday (1113 or above).

slee95 said...

Carl- Happy Thanksgiving!

Thank you for all the work you do.

Kishore said...

Carl, Happy Thanksgiving! We all have a lot to thank you for!

Urban said...

I agree - happy T-day Carl. Enjoy.

Joe said...

I don't know this is certainly not an example of a soaring Thanksgiving market. More like a turkey.
Joe

F&H Painting said...

market gonna drop

Urban said...

10yr t bill yields just plummeted. The trend looks to be down.

Kishore said...

Urban, the bond market is good indicator as it is so much larger than the stock market. But the bonds going up may be due to "flight to safety". The stock up is surely not moving up much. Maybe, the historic inverse relationship between bond yield and the stock market is now broken. How much lower can the yield go? Moreover, I don't see bonds to be any less risky than anything else in a debt-saturated society.

Kishore said...

Incidentally, my posting above applies to the crashing dollar also. Flight from a crashing dollar into the "safety" of the stock market would be a real joke of the century. Not funny!

me said...

Markets decline worldwide on Thursday. We may see a big drop on Friday.

me said...

Black Friday due to dubai issue.

Steveo said...

Ok, I am going to do a little victory lap here.....

Black Swans do not drift in, they are delivered by a cruise missile in the middle of the night, holidays, or on the weekend.



http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/chart-of-charts-112109-slam-down.html
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/08/mania-chronicles-and-dubai.html
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/blow-off-top.html
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/30-year-gap-study-and-some-political.html


As America tryptophans out and wakes up weary tomorrow, with half a trading day to "panic out with", this could be very interesting. Looks like nearly "perfect timing" by our financial overlords. Lots of Turkeys (aka Lemmings) getting cooked today.

me said...

Thursday, Nov 26, 2009. World Equity Indexes. Canada down 1.70%, Mexico down 2.76%, Brazil down 2.23%, Latin America down 0.13%, UK down 3.18%, Germany down 3.32%, France down 3.41%, Spain down 2.57%, Europe down 3.28%, Japan down 1.35%, Hong Kong down 1.96%, China down 0.75%, India down 2.0%, and Australia down 2.59%.

jeff said...

topped for now, headed down to down to 1070 to an unfilled gap.

given all of the other secondary markets failing to not only make new highs, but also unable to get over the 50 DMA, it's only a matter of time before this pattern reflects in the DOW and S&P. At best, we can get up to 1120 or so after this next bounce, but after that, the resumption of the bear market will continue down to S&P 400 in late 2010/2011.

Carl, as much as I admire your passion for much more higher prices, this market is on the verge of falling over. Perhaps, your contrarian points are view are becoming 'mainstream' as everyone on TV also thinks the sky the limit for this market.

One thing is for certain, any crash in the Euro/oil as you believe will manifest itself into lower S&P prices. Anyone can see how these items have been following each other since forever in time.

me said...

I believe the market indexes have been manipulated for the last two weeks (11-12) by some big players. Also, most countries are affected by this downside manipulation trading this time. So, I believe this is a false breakdown. However, if the market goes back up to 1100's when things calm down, then I believe it will go back down to 1050's (lowest temporary pullback). Eventually, it will go back up to 1120's or higher (long-term trading is still bullish).

Kishore said...

A long list ofdead-beat debtors can be found here:

http://www.cmavision.com/market-data

Will the market respond every time as it did to the Dubai debacle?

Suddenly, everyone loves the "king" dollar.

Shlomo said...

Carl,
See this that AAII survey reaches very bullish levels
http://seekingalpha.com/article/175512-signs-of-extreme-complacency-in-the-market
I know you used this recently as a contrarian indicator when it was bearish, are you willing to do the opposite?
Happy Thanksgiving