1098.50 is pretty strong resistance.... if we get up above that and hold it... i would expect a test of 1104, but until that happens... may have a pullback all the way down to 1073 where we have strong support!
If we lose 1090, 1086.50, 1077 next areas of support... good luck
Our Initial projection was for the markets to top In Oct13 around spx 1084. We hit the window almost perfectly with 1.5% higher and 4 trading days longer. Then we thought for an echo top on Nov13 ( both from our multiyear project Yellow Brick Road- YBR). We got that yesterday with the Dow hitting 10334 as high ( both numbers on Dow And SPX are ANNUAL HIGH ATTRACTION Points AHAPS projected in Feb 2009). Meanwhile we called initial market bottom on Nov3 and expected cycle inversion into Nov13 to down. Well, we had to quickly correct that after Nov 3rally to original top projection. We think there is one more chance for the market to go higher after minimal correction of FIBO 23-38%, after which we could go to hit 1120 62% retrace on SPX and 10521 62% retrace on DOW). Still as before stated on this blog, next 100 points from 1100 on SPX are more likely on the downside not upside. Any decline of more than 5% here will promptly lead to 10-12% decline. Mini Crash. We do expect higher highs next year,but not much higher. OIL has topped according to our SEEFUTURE projection ( projected for mid OCt one year ago) And Dollar has bottomed ,but could flatline into December( alstated before, at this blog), with bulk of decline coming thereafter. I believe, Carl's Calls are correct, but I do not expect either 1.20 Euro or too much upside for the market. Max 1160-1250 On SPX. Otherwise, I am in full agreement with lower OIL, Higher Interest rates ( bit later though) and outperfoming gold.
Exact Times, Prices Preserved.
Thank You Carl for excellent short term forecasts.
Definitely Wave IV retracement here. Using a 38.2% retracement of Wave III up, brings my calculations to the S&P 1085 or so before Wave V begins. I'll look for this Wave to complete itself at the latest tomorrow.
Notice too how Oil is down. I think this is the completion of Wave E down(part of an A-E consolidation pattern) within a Wave IV retracement. So long as oil holds above $76, I'm playing for Wave V up to put us around the $84 level. Around this time, the dollar should be around the $72-$73 range, which would mirror the 2008 low. I will look for the foreign nationals to finally put their foot down and the dollar decline, which will finally put a top in the equity market. If after this run-up, the dollar is not in this range, I think we have another 3 wave down, 5 wave up to 1170, but will re-evaluate once the upcoming Wave V completes itself.
5 comments:
1098.50 is pretty strong resistance.... if we get up above that and hold it... i would expect a test of 1104, but until that happens... may have a pullback all the way down to 1073 where we have strong support!
If we lose 1090, 1086.50, 1077 next areas of support... good luck
Our Initial projection was for the markets to top In Oct13 around spx 1084. We hit the window almost perfectly with 1.5% higher and 4 trading days longer. Then we thought for an echo top on Nov13 ( both from our multiyear project Yellow Brick Road- YBR). We got that yesterday with the Dow hitting 10334 as high ( both numbers on Dow And SPX are ANNUAL HIGH ATTRACTION Points AHAPS projected in Feb 2009). Meanwhile we called initial market bottom on Nov3 and expected cycle inversion into Nov13 to down. Well, we had to quickly correct that after Nov 3rally to original top projection. We think there is one more chance for the market to go higher after minimal correction of FIBO 23-38%, after which we could go to hit 1120 62% retrace on SPX and 10521 62% retrace on DOW). Still as before stated on this blog, next 100 points from 1100 on SPX are more likely on the downside not upside. Any decline of more than 5% here will promptly lead to 10-12% decline. Mini Crash. We do expect higher highs next year,but not much higher. OIL has topped according to our SEEFUTURE projection ( projected for mid OCt one year ago) And Dollar has bottomed ,but could flatline into December( alstated before, at this blog), with bulk of decline coming thereafter. I believe, Carl's Calls are correct, but I do not expect either 1.20 Euro or too much upside for the market. Max 1160-1250 On SPX. Otherwise, I am in full agreement with lower OIL, Higher Interest rates ( bit later though) and outperfoming gold.
Exact Times, Prices Preserved.
Thank You Carl for excellent short term forecasts.
We should be heading back to 1020, at least, instead of 1120, if we are in the third wave down.
Definitely Wave IV retracement here. Using a 38.2% retracement of Wave III up, brings my calculations to the S&P 1085 or so before Wave V begins. I'll look for this Wave to complete itself at the latest tomorrow.
Notice too how Oil is down. I think this is the completion of Wave E down(part of an A-E consolidation pattern) within a Wave IV retracement. So long as oil holds above $76, I'm playing for Wave V up to put us around the $84 level. Around this time, the dollar should be around the $72-$73 range, which would mirror the 2008 low. I will look for the foreign nationals to finally put their foot down and the dollar decline, which will finally put a top in the equity market. If after this run-up, the dollar is not in this range, I think we have another 3 wave down, 5 wave up to 1170, but will re-evaluate once the upcoming Wave V completes itself.
Carl,
ES has moved out of your range today. Do you this as an aberration or does it call for revision to your short-to-medium term estimates?
Thanks.
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