Friday, November 20, 2009

Guesstimates on November 20, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: The day session range estimate is 1080- 1095. This morning the market dropped to within a point of its last low at 1082.50. I think that level will be broken briefly but a move up to 1126 should begin soon.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.60. Support is at 43.25.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: There is still no sign of a top in the making. Next upside target is 1165. Meantime support is at 1075.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 525. This step upward will carry to 610.


sandy allred said...

How many out there agree with Carl's intraday low of 1080?

me said...

I would agree with 1126 target level if the support level stays around 1080's.

me said...

I believe Carl has nailed it. Wave c of 5th has made a diagonal 1080's. It will be on its way up from 1080's.

tapped out said...

The 1080 level was resistance from 9/23/09 to 10/13/09, then support from 10/14/09 to 10/23/09, and support again now since 11/10/09. 1080 is still contained within an up channel of the daily $INX since the March 6th low and has 8 to 12 trading days left before it breaks through the channel bottom. This bottom has been tested twice before and held. This channel I feel is in wave 5 of a primary wave up and set to continue to move higher.

Aar said...

I agree with his support at 1082 for a 2 day retracement back upto 1100, but this market is going down till 1035 before Dec 4th

me said...

I believe it will go back up to 1100's by Wednesday of next week. I see shoulder-head-shoulder pattern.

tapped out said...

I see Black Friday sales results on the horizon that must be dealt with first, then we move up.

jeff said...


I admire your conviction, but we are still technically in 'no-mans' land and anyone who really knows where we are headed at this stage is purely guessing. That being said, if we break above 1098, your 1026 scenario could definitely unfold. However, a break below today's intraday low means the latest top is in. Under the latter scenario, a retracement to 1060-1070 is likely before we try again to test new highs.

I want to be a believer, but the technicals are showing a lot of inherent weakness. Notice how the Russell made a double top a while ago and is now struggling to get back above the 50 DMA. You can say the same thing about the financials as well.

Whenever the DOW proves it has made either made a lower low or lower high, the top will be in. Until such time; however, you still have to respect the uptrend.

Wags94596 said...


Your impatience with this market's uptrend is noted. I am not sure what has happened for you to feel so strongly that the TREND of the market has reversed, when in fact it has not violated any important MA's on a Daily, Weekly, or Monthly basis

Win said...

Have you been watching the fall in short-term rates? What do you think this means for equities?