Friday, November 13, 2009

Guesstimates on November 13, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: The day session range estimate is again 1085-1100. I expect to see this rally reach the 1126 level within a week or two.

QQQ: Support is at 41.10. Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: Gold has reached the 1120 level but there is still no sign of a top in the making. Next upside target is 1165. Meantime support is at 1075.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.

5 comments:

jeff said...

Carl,

for different reasons, I think your 1120 call will come to fruition.

I think we finished Wave IV, a 38.2% retracement of Wave III up at 1082 in last night's trading. As such, we have an imcomplete Wave V structure to 1120. Looking at the 4 hour chart, I think we top between 1116 and 1125 depending upon how your draw on your pencil on the top of the uptrending chart.

After that, I think the big risk is to remain on the long side.

Aar said...

I think this market is completely ignoring fundamentals, so it's good we just followed technicals. I am on Carl's boat right now. My analysis points me to a top between 1110 and 1115 on Nov 17th or 18th, and a correction till Dec 2nd of 85 points, down to 1035. I think at that point market is going to start looking at mid-quarter updates for either up or down moves

Wags94596 said...

Yep, everyone has minute wave 4 ending late yesterday or into this morning's SPY 108.75 low when the Consumer Sentiment came out and negatively effected the market for a few minutes. Now in Minute Wave 5 up.

Kishore said...

The market is currently not worth trading. It is over-extended against the bulls and rigged and outright hostile against the bears.

Top guessing is unproductive. I am willing to miss out on the early part when the trend changes to down.

It is best for the bears to step aside and wait for the bulls to exhaust themselves.

Quite frankly, I don't care what the bulls do. As per the dictates of the economy, I will not go long in this market and would leave the bulls alone with their rigging, BS and con games. For bears, it is game of patience.

Bill said...

The market seems to be building strength, with the Nasdaq having caught up to the S&P as far as shooting for new highs. This rally that started under the leadership of the DOW has a broader base now.

Still there's one concern. Small caps are lagging way behind. The Russell 2000 is still well below the year's high of $62. For this rally to be truly broad based the small caps need to start participating.