Monday, November 02, 2009

Update

Here is a 30 minute bar chart of day session e-mini trading. Contrary to my expectation there was no follow-through to this morning's high volume rally. The market has come back down to the lower line of the bearish trend channel I have drawn.

On thing I think is significant here is that while the volume on this morning's rally was higher than it has been on similar rally attempts recently (green ovals) the afternoon break has been on lower volume than seen on previous down thrusts during this reaction. This makes me more confident that the market will end this reaction somewhere in the 1020-25 zone (blue oval). The next significant development will be sustained rally to 1120 or higher.

13 comments:

F&H Painting said...

Just a reminder, folks. We don't have to bet every race.

MaverickUK said...

Now looking for 1020 to trade. YOu may well be right that we bounce from that level, but to a lower high.

dcatlowpj said...

I am looking at your Chart, Carl, and it is a sloping downward channel, so any longs today, based on this chart, are just pullbacks, unless entries are supported with an exhaustion Volume bar.

andi said...

folks..start your engine...30-40 ES pts is a cinch

robertlediable said...

can't access chartlist, password nec.

janet said...

I agree with Carl's opinion; we get a pull-back and you can feel people's panic with their all or nothing mindsets. Boom or bust so the adage is.

Kishore said...

F&H Painting, I really like your assertion that we do not need to bet on every race. It can be addictive and also increases the chances of making mistakes. It is safe to play only the 3rd andd fifth waves when the potential gains are max and the risk is min.

jeff said...

we could easily get down to 1020 or so. However, that doesn't take away the fact the market landscape has changed.

Just an obvservation, but the market is making a longer-term rounding pattern . Should we luckily get up to 1080 and fall, this will prove another peg in the chart of this topping process.

Given how oversold the 10 day and 30 day advance/decline line, I do think we will rally a bit through the middle of the month.

For now, we could be still be in Wave 5 down from 1101 before the ABC retracement starts. A counter trend rally to 1080 or so would be textbook.

Jeff said...

Ways to make money LONG:
higher highs; higher lows

Ways to lose money LONG:
lower highs; lower lows

We are currently in a declining channel. My take is that unless we break the upper trendline, we are not going anywhere near 1120.

People can daytrade the swings, but going LONG at this point for 1120 is not wise. A side note, I got a sell signal today on the S&P on a weekly chart. I've only had 2 such signals since March. To take that signal out, we need to (at this point) break ~1100, so beware is my 2c.

Wags94596 said...

Everyone's still looking LOWER... and that means we are heading back up!

Jeff said...

Wags94596,
Stick to the signals...not to people's opinions. There's an opinion for both cases. Well, I guess there's a signal for them as well.

So...stick to your signals. If it's long, then be long. If it's short/cash, then be there instead. Once again, my 2c.

Kishore said...

Wags94596, who is everyone? Did you take a survey or is it just a wild-ass prediction, like many others on this blog?

Win said...

Kishore,
I thought you had decided we commentators were useless and that you weren't going to bother with us. I guess you still can't keep off the abuse.

Carl,
No time for trading right now, so I'm becoming more of an investor. These (bullish) articles might interest you:

http://tinyurl.com/yff8plf

http://tinyurl.com/ycl6pzh