Thursday, November 05, 2009

Guesstimates on November 5, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Yesterday's late selling has been completely retraced in electronic trading early this morning. As I write this the market is also trading above the midpoint of yesterday's range at 1050. In light of these two facts I am withdrawing the "down to 1015-20" prognosis offered near yesterday's close. I am going to estimate today's day session range as 1044-1061, essentially the same range as yesterday. Trading above yesterday's high at 1058.50 for more than 30 minutes will mean that the e-minis are headed for 1120.

QQQ: Support is at 41.10. Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: The market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1030.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.

8 comments:

Kishore said...

Carl, your vibrations appear to be in tune with the market vacillations. I have always adored yor logic. You see a lot more just in price and volume than most of us.

S Mohiuddin said...

Can I just say that your style is described by one easy word - "Momentum".
To be more specific, "bullish Momentum" with superb Risk control.

Great style Mr. Futia.

jeff said...

Carl,

I think this market is making everyone a bit confused. I can re-read your recent blogs, but I've never seen you been flipped in so many directions(i.e. w're going to 1120, no we're going to 1020, no we're going to 1010, no i recast that we're 1120).

I know this site is for 'short term' trading, but I find it interesting that the S&P is up a whopping 2 points since the August high. Plus, the S&P has crossed up and down the 1040 mark 6 times in this same time period.

My take on this is the market is still on the verge of completing it's topping process before we right back down and complete this Bear Market trend.

Since I follow Elliott Wave, the market action over the past couple years is a basic 5 wave down and ABC retracement to where we find ourselves today. For the Bear Market to complete itself, we will ultimately need another 5 wave down formation before we start the next Bull Market.
Looking at the monthly charts, we have a clasic unfinished M pattern formation, which will require us to go back to S&P 400.

So while we have a small possbility of hitting 1120, I'm not losing site of the long-term picture, which I recognize this site only concentrates on very, very short-term chart ups.

Win said...

Mohiuddin, Carl's work doesn't fit into that narrow a box. What about his boxes (ha!) that provide excellent estimates of intermediate term moves and his longer-term work with Lindsay's cycles?

MD said...

Hey Carl,

I have noticed no posted trades lately. Are you sitting these days out or do you just not have enough time during the market hours to post them?

Thanks,

Aarpenn said...

Request to all of you guys. Please share your opinions objectively focused on the market. Do not overly-criticise Carl's blog or analysis. I am big net reader. I read a lot of other experts' blogs. I can give some big names in the industry that give commentary and analysis but don't bother to explain why their trades went right or wrong the way Carl does. It takes a lot of conviction and guts (not to mention conscience) to do what Carl is doing, that too free of cost. So please do not frustrate him to a point he stops doing this. I for one has benefited quite a bit from his analysis. So again, please be little more courteous and sensitive with your feedback.

Thanks guys.

jeff said...

Aarpenn,

Thanks for the good post. The intention of my posts are not to put any negative connotation, but rather, to state the obvious, the market is confused. Plus, I think folks who read Carl's site need to develop for themeselves (i) a risk tolerance, and (ii) a time horizon. I commend Carl on addressing both of these attributes.

And I am supportive of his approach as I believe we need to go up; however, in my opinion, I think the recent days' jump in prices is a function of an ABC retracement after peaking at 1101. If we break above, I'm obviously wrong, but like Carl, I too can define my risk tolerance.

All the best,
Jeff

twc2009 said...

Agree w/Aarpenn.

Although I have multiple paid subscriptions, I frequently come to Carl's site(s) because of his "objective" view of the market.

Regards,
twc