Wednesday, November 04, 2009

Guesstimates on November 4, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1040-60. The market appears poised to accelerate past the last top at 1049.75. Such action would mean that the move to 1120 has begun.

QQQ: Support is at 41.10. Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: The market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1030.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.


MaverickUK said...

Market rally is over - about to reverse. Look for new lows

Zafiris said...

Bold statement. Wanna support it?

Kishore said...

MaverickUK, I agree. The market is manic-depressive. It switches between manic and panic, at least in the short-term. It reflects the mindset of nervous traders.

On daily charts, the down channel has been broken to the upside. So, maybe, the market will conitnue going up for a few more days.

marketinsight said...

I following a handful of proprietary price oscillators...and they are pointing to this rally being very similar (from a technical standpoint) to the one in late June...beginning June 25 when the SPX rallied about 30 pts in 2-3 days...before a decline of 60 or so the following two weeks...if this were to happen, it would put the S&P down towards strong support in the 1010 range...where it could potentially begin an 8-10% move up to 1100+ later in the month.

MaverickUK said...

FTSE gave a topping candle. Now you may say, "what's that got to do with anything." I counter by saying that the FTSE is a leading indicator for the S&P.

Wags94596 said...

The Dollar is once again getting hammered today. That's bullish for the energy, drilling, and mining issues which make up a good portion of the S&P. The "carry" trade continues and that means higher prices for the S&P.

extrader said...

If we lose 1050, we will crash and burn! Rally is suspect with no volume... Fed will not say anything different... Its a typical Buy the rumor Sell the news... Next stop is 1010!

Kishore said...

extrader, this rally is typical, caused by the overnight buying of ES Futures at low volume. It always pulls in a few suckers during the RTH. I am waiting for the breakdown of 1052. Then we should at least see the RTH low of 1048. And then if the gap starts getting filled, we should be down to 1041.

extrader said...

If we close above 1051 today, I will change my bias to the UPSIDE!