Tuesday, November 17, 2009


Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. Today's session has been narrow and trendless (so far). Still, the market is conveying important information even as it apparently does nothing. Notice the blue dash oval which encompasses the past two day sessions. It stands entirely above the late September high of 1099. This means that no double top against the 1099 level will develop. It is further evidence that the market is headed for 1126 (green oval) and to 1170 during the early part of 2010.

I expect tomorrow to be a bullish day and think the 1126 level will be reached by the end of the week.


jeff said...

i think holding above 1100 today was a good statement.

And although I know your short-term viewpoints on Elliott Wave, I think today's market low was a classical ABC 4th wave correction from yesterday's high. As such, I think a final fifth wave has started and will look for the market to make new highs shortly before we either see a short-term ABC retracement or the start of many five waves down.

From the intermediate term perspective, we are still simply in a intermediate ABC retracement bear market rally that started in March. The 'A' up was between March and June, the 'B' down was until mid-July, and, thus far, we are still in the 'C' wave up. Ofcourse, nobody knows for sure when this final retracement wave will end, but when it does, I'll bet we will be seeing a lot more hourly chart trend lines going down instead of up. However, until we see a break below S&P 1030, the 'C' retracement wave is alive and well.

me said...

Agree. We are on our way to 5th wave of 'C'. 50% retracement level is around 1120. The potential 5 waves down may be around 50 - 60 points. So, the downsize would come to about 1070- 1060.

jeff said...

Me -

If, in fact, it's only 50-60 points, it's technically an ABC retracement. And if, for some reason, we find ourselves headed down towards the 1030 area again, undoubtedly, I bet Carl would need to make modification to his 1170 call and say we may see prices below 1000 by early 2010.

However, that is a big 'if'. For now, the trend is still up and I think the prudent thing is to respect the uptrend until we finally see a change in character. Undoubtedly, it will come, but only the liars know when.

Urban said...

Carl, your views as always are appreciated. I also enjoy the EW views and think that a sound strategy incorporates many view points.

me said...

Agree. The course will change if it goes down too low, 1030. hopefully, we'll figure it out when time comes. In the meantime, enjoy the uptrend and see how far it can go up before it gets a short-lived pullback. According to my charts, I have long-term up trend.

RBharol said...

If Dollar starts to rally from here, do you still think markets will hold these levels and goto 1170?

me said...

On the downside, I'll be watching out for 4 support levels, 1090, 1070, 1050, and 1030. 1090 support level is good for the bull.

All good..all good said...

Thanks for always sharing your information so we can all learn.
Hoping you have a great Thanksgiving!