Monday, November 02, 2009
Going with the (order) flow
Here is a 30 minute bar char of e-mini day session trading. The market did not make it down to my 1020-25 target range (at least not yet). Then some economic news early this morning generated quite a bit of buying activity on high volume (last green oval), volume that is higher than appeared of previous rally attempts on the way down from 1099.
Lately I have been the yo-yo at the end of the market's string. But I am committed to going with the order flow which generally defines the trend. Since the e-minis are rallying from a low that is higher than the October 2 low at 1012 I am going to interpret this buying activity bullishly. I think it is the first indication pointing to the start of a sustained rally, one that will carry the market to 1120 or higher.
If this is the correct prognosis, the e-minis should break above the 1056 resistance level - the point at which this rally would equal the size of the last rally on the way down (purple rectangles). That price level also is where the upper bearish channel line now stands.
Support for the rest of today's session should be found near 1042.