Monday, November 16, 2009


Here is an hourly bar chart showing day session e-mini trading going back to late September. The short term trend turned upward in early November as you can see from the succession of higher trading ranges (blue ovals). I think midpoint resistance at 1126 and the top of the trend channel will be reached in a few days (green oval). Some sort of reaction is likely to begin there but I doubt that it will carry the market lower than 1075. In any event I still think the 1170 level will be reached early in 2010.


Tigger22 said...

thanks Carl, I agree

extrader said...

10,300 on the DJIA is the same amount of a rebound as was in 1929!

What happened next?

jeff said...

keep up the good work Carl.

Personally, I think we will peak tomorrow around the 1125 level(just above the 50% retracement of the 2007 highs). But will respect the bottom of your hourly trend line of 1170 or so. From a 'trading' perspective, the short side will be the only side to trade for the next couple weeks if not the next year or two.

Plus, this bounce and rollover trading pattern since July is becoming so obvious (including my mom)that I would be surprised it continues to work.

Plus, many of the other indexes are lagging behind bigtime. Notice, for example, the Russelll 2000 made a double top in October and has strugged dearly to get over the 50 DMA. Just an obvservation, but market rallies are very long in the tooth when the brokerage houses simply pile into large cap stocks in lieu of small-caps. Another example, GS was up .25% and can't get back above the 50 DMA on a day the Dow was up 136 points. I could go on with the comparisons, but it's at least something to make note of.

Urban said...

You continue to be right when almost everyone else is either wrong or scratching their heads and frustrated.

Tigger22 said...

Carl, every elliot waver out there is trying to gear up for the "next big crash". It's the obvious trade.

Kishore said...

From the high of Oct 14, 2009, through the low of Nov 2, to the breakout today on high volume, S&P is making a cup and a handle formation. This should mean a continued, unrelentling UP trend for some time, diagonally going up and up away.

Incidentally, Cup and Handle formation is a reliable formation, a long time favorite of Guru William O'neil, founder of Investors' Business Daily.