Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Guesstimates on November 10, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1080-1100. I expect to see this rally reach the 1120 level within a week or two.

QQQ: Support is at 41.10. Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: The market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1030.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.

9 comments:

PM said...

Hi Carl,

On 10/27/2009 02:48:00 PM I posted on your blog that a two year down trend line may well stop the rally for the time being. It did and a pull back followed.

Yesterday we rallied back to that two year downtrend line and for the first time in more than two years the market rallied and closed above that line. I believe this is highly significant.

I think we could see the SP's reach above 1200, maybe 1240ish before this year is out, that's just a guess...

Yesterday that line was at 1080.27 precisely and moving lower by .94444 points each market day... so, today that line stands at 1079.32, which means that price should now become support, presuming we lived in a perfect universe... therefore, we're now above a major long term resistance downtrend line for the first time in more than two years as of yesterday, and this line was started at the very highest high that the market ever reached, this is very significant...

This tells me this is a long term bull market rally and should continue for some time, probably at least through the first quarter of 2010 before any sort of serious top occurs...

Thanks...

Kindest regards,

PM

andi said...

that;s fair range for today carl..i covered some shorts at a loss.will cover the rect @1075-1080..A bullish case now is strenghthened..however do not exclude the possibility of a reversal since things have become volatile of late

Joseph said...

Hi Carl, what is your view that you would start scalling out your longs due to your 1120 target by mth end is not attainable. What wre your triggers, FIB, SPY, USO, XLK, EUR/USD, XLF, Watch 20 EMA – If pricing is above 20 EMA for 3-4 days then not a BULL trap. However if brks down EMA on the 4 day watch the 5th to see if it also closes below 20EMA so no BEAR Trap....

Essentially, what would make you start to scale out?

Im Long Till WED atleast until the above reverses

Thanks
Joe

jeff said...

Carl and others,

I think we could go higher here in the short-run, but if Carl truly believes we are to see a sustained drop in the Euro to 120 and oil is headed to $50, there is no conceivable way the S&P can make sustainable highs later this year or 2010.

By default, a drop in oil and Euro means, the dollar goes up(oil is denominated in dollars), which translates into equities/S&P goes down.

While I continue to appreciate Carl's short-term market direction analysis, I completely miffed by his intermediate term logic.

Anyone care to comment on this relationship?

Win said...

Jeff,
Correlations don't exist for ever.

It is possible that in this last wave up, the dollar will strengthen somewhat along with equities. If so, oil (denominated in dollars) may fall. I don't yet see the fall to $50, at least not until the entire market starts to fall.

Kishore said...

In the short-term the market will be going lower, a major push down as we will be going into the third wave of a correction.

In other words, BS hit the fan this morning!

Kishore said...

The market made a V shape push up from 1051 at a very low volume. It built no support as it went up, typical of a wave 2. Now, there is hardly any support before 1061.

So, it appears that we are entering wave 3 down and it should be a vicious drop, unless, of course, BS prevails again. Uncle Ben is full of tricks. Further crash of the dollar is only one of them.

Win said...

So, basically, Kishore, we will go down, unless we go up. I like your use of EWT. If you're wrong, it's the Fed.

Kishore said...

Win, we can't fight the FED and BS. They have trashed both TA and EW. Them with toilet paper make the rules!