Monday, November 30, 2009

Guesstimates on November 30, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: I think Friday's 1067 low will hold. In fact I do not expect to see the e-minis trade below 1082. Today's range estimate is 1085-1100. I think the market is headed for the 1130-40 range.

QQQ: Support is at 42.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I have been leaning on resistance near 150 but New York closed above 151.00 on Wednesday so I now think the market is headed for 160. Meantime support is at 147.50. Dollar-Yen: I now thing the dollar-yen is headed down to 80.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 81.00.

GLD – February Gold: Sentiment is very bullish. But I think this morning's 1130 low will hold and that continuation upward to 1230 is likely.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has nearly been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.


Rajath said...

how can you expect crude oil to be at $50 when you expect S&P to move to 1140 levels?
isn't it obvious that S&P and crude oil are directly proportional and not inversely ? Ofcourse $81 stoploss will get triggered in that case !

me said...

I'm going to bet against Carl this time (1st time) on S&P. It's a bear trap. S&P has a downtrend for at least 5 days or more (1050's or lower). It won't go any higher than 1110's if it bounces. I believe there are 2 scenarios: 1)bull scenario, we're on P2 wave (down to 1000's) and 2) bear scenario, we're are on P5 wave (down to 600's). Bull or bear story will unfold in 3 months or earlier/later. My charts still show long-term bullish though.