Monday, November 16, 2009

Guesstimates on November 16, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: The day session range estimate is 1093-1108. I expect to see this rally reach the 1126 level within a few days.

QQQ: Support is at 41.10. Next upside target is 45.60.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: There is still no sign of a top in the making. Next upside target is 1165. Meantime support is at 1075.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.


Shlomo said...

I know you posted last week about the AAII survey, but the data this week shows a return to long-term average levels of bullishness.

jeff said...


After a perfect 38.2% Wave IV retracement of Wave III(the typical most powerful wave), we are obviously in the process of completing Wave V up. As soon as this market gets up to the 1120 range, I think staying long will be a huge risk for the longs. As I type, we are at all-time 2009 highs.

The key question will be once this latest Wave structure completes itself, will we start another ABC retracement down or the first of many, many Wave 5 structures.