Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Update

I had thought that today would be a bullish day but instead the e-minis have remained locked in the 1100-1112 trading range. I still think the market will breakout above this range late today or more probably tomorrow. In the meantime I don't think any drop below 1100 will carry very far or last very long.

I am impressed by the fact that the highest prices of the past 8 months have not attracted any aggressive selling. This tells me that the market is going to have to move substantially higher to give the sellers waiting in the wings the opportunity they are waiting for. I still think we shall see 1126 in a few days and 1170 early in 2010.

5 comments:

jeff said...

you could be right Carl. For now, all we can do is trade in the present.

This action looks like a Wave IV triangle formation before we see the Wave V breakout. However, I think any break below the 2007 market high trendline(1098) would be extremely negative here.

me said...

The 5th wave up is taking its time right now. Waiting for the 50% retracement level 1120's. At 1120's level, i expect 2 things, a short-lived pullback or a major resistant to break the 68% retracement level to go up to 1170's.

Kishore said...

After two days of solid consolidation, the market is likely to jump, like "Jack in the Box". And, in keeping up the traditions of the "BS Hiters", the jump may be with an overnight gap.

However, if it was not cosnolidation and was, instead, hitting a wall, then instead of a "Jack in a Box", it will be "Humpty Dumpty had a great fall".

It is time to wait and not try to out guess the market.

BigBoys said...

Are you expecting a big fall after we hit 1126. Since your forecast for 2010 is so close to 1126 that you are expecting for in few days, then I would guess we should get a pretty good correction after we hit 1126.

me said...

Looked like an triangle of wave iv has formed. just need one good push upward for wave v to 1120's which is not that far away. Hope we would break through the 61.8% retracement level though 1170's and up without too much of a pullback (1090's)from 1120's.