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2010 daily guesstimates

Here is a list of my daily guesstimates for 2010.

DECEMBER

December 31 - 8:30 am ET
December 30 - 8:30 am ET
December 29 - 8:30 am ET
December 28 - 8:30 am ET
December 27 - 8:30 am ET

December 23 - 8:30 am ET
December 22 - 8:30 am ET
December 21 - 8:30 am ET
December 20 - 8:30 am ET

December 17 - 8:30 am ET
December 16 - 8:30 am ET
December 15 - 8:45 am ET
December 14 - 8:45 am ET
December 13 - 8:45 am ET

December 10 - 8:45 am ET
December 9 - 8:45 am ET
December 8 - 8:45 am ET
December 7 - 8:45 am ET
December 6 - 8:45 am ET

December 3 - 8:45 am ET
December 2 - 8:45 am ET
December 1 - 8:30 am ET

NOVEMBER

November 30 -8:30 am ET
November 29 - 1:00 pm ET

November 26 - 9:00 am ET
November 24 - 9:00 am ET
November 23 - 8:45 am ET
November 22 - 8:45 am ET

November 19 - 8:30 am ET
November 18 - 8:30 am ET
November 17 - 8:30 am ET
November 16 - 8:30 am ET
November 15 - 8:30 am ET

November 12 - 8:30 am ET
November 11 - 8:30 am ET
November 10 - 8:30 am ET
November 9 - 8:30 am ET
November 8 - 8:30 am ET

November 5 - 8:45 am ET
November 4 - 8:30 am ET
November 3 - 8:30 am ET
November 2 - 8:30 am ET
November 1 - 8:30 am ET

OCTOBER

October 29 - 9:00 am ET
October 28 - 8:30 am ET
October 27 - 8:30 am ET
October 26 - 8:30 am ET
October 25 - 8:30 am ET

October 22 - 8:30 am ET
October 21 - 8:30 am ET
October 20 - 8:30 am ET
October 19 - 8:45 am ET
October 18 - 8:30 am ET

October 15 - 8:30 am ET
October 14 - 8:30 am ET
October 13 - 8:30 am ET
October 12 - 8:30 am ET
October 11 - 8:45 am ET

October 8 - 8:45 am ET
October 7 - 8:30 am ET
October 6 - 8:30 am ET
October 5 - 8:30 am ET
October 4 - 8:30 am ET

October 1 - 8:45 am ET


SEPTEMBER

September 30 - 8:30 am ET
September 29 - 8:45 am ET
September 28 - 8:45 am ET
September 27 - 8:30 am ET

September 24 - 8:30 am ET
September 23 - 8:30 am ET
September 22 - 8:30 am ET
September 21 - 8:30 am ET
September 20 - 8:30 am ET

September 17 - 8:30 am ET
September 16 - 8:30 am ET
September 15 - 8:30 am ET
September 14 - 8:30 am ET
September 13 - 8:30 am ET

September 10 - 8:55 am ET
September 9 - 8:45 am ET
September 8 - 8:45 am ET
September 7 - 8:30 am ET

September 3 - 8:45 am ET
September 2 - 8:45 am ET
September 1 - 8:30 am ET

AUGUST

August 31 - 8:30 am ET
August 30- 8:30 am ET

August 27 - 8:30 am ET
August 26 - 9:00 am ET
August 25 - 8:45 am ET
August 24 - 8:45 am ET
August 23 - 8:45 am ET

August 20 - 8:45 am ET
August 19 - 8:45 am ET
August 18 - 8:45 am ET
August 17 - 8:45 am ET
August 16 - 8:30 am ET

August 13 - 8:30 am ET
August 12 - 8:30 am ET
August 11 - 8:30 am ET
August 10 - 8:30 am ET
August 9 - 8:30 am ET

August 6 - 8:45 am ET
August 5 - 8:30 am ET
August 4 - 8:30 am ET
August 3 - 8:30 am ET
August 2 - 8:30 am ET

JULY

July 30 - 8:30 am ET
July 29 - 8:30 am ET
July 28 - 8:30 am ET
July 27 - 8:30 am ET
July 26 - 8:30 am ET

July 23 - 8:30 am ET
July 22 - 8:30 am ET
July 21 - 8:30 am ET
July 20 - 8:30 am ET
July 19 - 8:30 am ET

July 16 - 8:30 am ET
July 15 - 8:30 am ET
July 14 - 8:30 am ET
July 13 - 8:30 am ET
July 12 - 8:45 am ET

July 9 - 8:30 am ET
July 8 - 8:30 am ET
July 7 - 8:30 am ET
July 6 - 8:30 am ET

July 2 - 8:40 am ET
July 1 - 8:30 am ET


JUNE

June 30 - 8:30 am ET
June 29 - 8:30 am ET
June 28 - 8:30 am ET

June 25 - 8:30 am ET
June 24 - 8:30 am ET
June 23 - 8:30 am ET
June 22 - 8:30 am ET
June 21 - 8:30 am ET

June 18 - 8:30 am ET
June 17 - 8:30 am ET
June 16 - 8:30 am ET
June 15 - 8:30 am ET
June 14 - 9:00 am ET

June 11 - 8:30 am ET
June 10 - 8:30 am ET
June 9 - 8:30 am ET
June 8 - 8:30 am ET
June 7 - 8:30 am ET

June 4 - 8:30 am ET
June 3 - 8:30 am ET
June 2 - 8:30 am ET
June 1 - 8:30 am ET

MAY

May 28 - 8:30 am ET
May 27 - 8:30 am ET
May 26 - 8:30 am ET
May 25 - 8:30 am ET
May 24 - 8:30 am ET

May 21 - 8:30 am ET
May 20 - 8:30 am ET
May 19 - 8:30 am ET
May 18 - 8:30 am ET
May 17 - 9:15 am ET

May 14 - 8:30 am ET
May 13 - 8:30 am ET
May 12 - 8:45 am ET
May 11 - 8:45 am ET
May 10 - 8:30 am ET

May 7 - 8:30 am ET
May 6 - 8:30 am ET
May 5 - 8:30 am ET
May 4 - 8:30 am ET
May 3 - 8:30 am ET

APRIL

April 30 - 8:30 am ET
April 29 - 8:30 am ET
April 28 - 8:30 am ET
April 27 - 8:30 am ET
April 26 - 8:30 am ET

April 23 - 8:30 am ET
April 22 - 8:30 am ET
April 21 - 8:30 am ET
April 20 - 8:30 am ET
April 19 - 8:30 am ET

April 16 - 8:30 am ET
April 15 - 8:30 am ET
April 14 - 8:30 am ET
April 13 - 8:30 am ET
April 12 - 8:30 am ET

April 9 - 8:30 am ET
April 8 - 8:30 am ET
April 7 - 8:30 am ET
April 6 - 8:30 am ET
April 5 - 8:30 am ET

April 1 - 8:30 am ET

MARCH

March 31 - 8:30 am ET
March 30 - 8:45 am ET
March 29 - 8:30 am ET

March 26 - 8:45 am ET
March 25 - 8:30 am ET
March 24 - 8:30 am ET
March 23 - 8:30 am ET
March 22 - 8:30 am ET

March 19 - 8:30 am ET
March 18 - 8:30 am ET
March 17 - 8:30 am ET
March 16 - 8:30 am ET
March 15 - 8:30 am ET

March 12 - 8:30 am ET
March 11 - 8:30 am ET
March 10 - 8:30 am ET
March 9 - 8:45 am ET
March 8 - 8:30 am ET

March 5 - 8:40 am ET
March 4 - 8:30 am ET
March 3 - 8:30 am ET
March 2 - 8:30 am ET
March 1 - 8:30 am ET


FEBRUARY

February 26 - 8:30 am ET
February 25 - 8:35 am ET
February 24 - 8:30 am ET
February 23 - 8:30 am ET
February 22 - 8:30 am ET

February 19 - 8:30 am ET
February 18 - 8:30 am ET
February 17 - 8:30 am ET
February 16 - 8:30 am ET

February 12 - 8:30 am ET
February 11 - 8:30 am ET
February 10 - 8:30 am ET
February 9 - 8:30 am ET
February 8 - 8:35 am ET

February 5 - 8:35 am ET
February 4 - 8:45 am ET
February 3 - 8:30 am ET
February 2 - 8:30 am ET
February 1 - 8:30 am ET

JANUARY

January 29 - 8:30 am ET
January 28 - 8:30 am ET
January 27 - 8:30 am ET
January 26 - 8:30 am ET
January 25 - 8:30 am ET

January 22 - 8:30 am ET
January 21 - 8:30 am ET
January 20 - 8:30 am ET
January 19 - 8:30 am ET

January 15 - 8:45 am ET
January 14 - 8:45 am ET
January 13 - 8:45 am ET
January 12 - 8:45 am ET
January 11 - 8:45 am ET

January 8 - 8:45 am ET
January 7 - 8:45 am ET
January 6 - 8:45 am ET
January 5 - 9:00 am ET
January 4 - 8:45 am ET

Guesstimates on January 4, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1108-1122. I think that the ES is still in a 1105-1130 trading range and will visit the low end of this range before it moves substantially higher. I also expect the market to reach the 1170 level during the next month or so.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway. My best guess is that 140 will be only temporary support and that the market will drop to 125 over the next couple of months.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has moved above the 91.00 level and this means that a rally to 100.00 is underway.

February Crude: Crude has rallied more than I expected but I still think the next big move will be downward to 50.00.

GLD – February Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1125.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months.

Google: Next upside target is 660. Support remains at 565.

So What?

Here is my latest post on "The Art of Contrarian Trading".

Guesstimates on December 31, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1120-1130. So far the market has dropped about 15 points from Tuesday's high of 1128.50. I think that the ES is still in a 1105-1130 trading range and will visit the low end of this range before it moves substantially higher. I also expect the market to reach the 1170 level during the next month or so.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway. My best guess is that 140 will be only temporary support and that the market will drop to 125 over the next couple of months.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has moved above the 91.00 level and this means that a rally to 100.00 is underway.

February Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 79.00.

GLD – February Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1125.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months.

Google: Next upside target is 660. Support remains at 565.

Guesstimates on December 30, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1110-1120. So far the market has dropped about 15 points from its high of 1128.50 yesterday, but I think that this reaction will find support in the 1105-10 range before a move to 1140 develops. I also expect the market to reach the 1170 level during the next month or so.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway. My best guess is that 140 will be only temporary support and that the market will drop to 125 over the next couple of months.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has moved above the 91.00 level and this means that a rally to 100.00 is underway.

February Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 79.00.

GLD – February Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1125.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months.

Google: Next upside target is 660. Support remains at 565.

Guesstimates on December 29, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1118-1130. The market has broken out from its 1080-1115 trading range. Even so, I think we shall see a reaction of 15-25 points before the 1140 level is reached. I also expect the market to reach the 1170 level during the next month or so.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway. My best guess is that 140 will be only temporary support and that the market will drop to 125 over the next couple of months.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has moved above the 91.00 level and this means that a rally to 100.00 is underway.

February Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 79.00.

GLD – February Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1125.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months.

Google: Next upside target is 660. Support remains at 565.

Guesstimates on December 28, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract again 1116-1127. The market has broken out from its 1080-1115 trading range. Even so, I think we shall see a reaction of 15-25 points before the 1140 level is reached. I also expect the market to reach the 1170 level during the next month or so.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway. My best guess is that 140 will be only temporary support and that the market will drop to 125 over the next couple of months.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has moved above the 91.00 level and this means that a rally to 100.00 is underway.

February Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 77.50.

GLD – February Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1125.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months.

Google: Next upside target is 660. Support remains at 565.

Guesstimates on December 24, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is again 1110-1120. The market has started to creep out of its 1080-1115 trading range, but the low volume makes it hard to evaluate the significance of this breakout for the market's near term trend. Nonetheless, this action reinforces my view that the e-minis will reach 1170 or so during the next couple of months.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway. My best guess is that 140 will be only temporary support and that the market will drop to 125 over the next couple of months.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has moved above the 91.00 level and this means that a rally to 100.00 is underway.

February Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 77.50.

GLD – February Gold: Gold has broken 1100 support. This means the longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months.

Google: Google has reached its near term target at 610. Next upside target is 660. Support remains at 565.

Guesstimates on December 23, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1110-1120. The market has started to creep out of its 1080-1115 trading range, but the low volume makes it hard to evaluate the significance of this breakout for the market's near term trend. Nonetheless, this action reinforces my view that the e-minis will reach 1170 or so during the next couple of months.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway. My best guess is that 140 will be only temporary support and that the market will drop to 125 over the next couple of months.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has moved above the 91.00 level and this means that a rally to 100.00 is underway.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 75.00.

GLD – February Gold: Gold has broken 1100 support. This means the longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months.

Google: Support is now at 565. This step upward will carry to 610.

Guesstimates on December 22, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1102-1116. The market remains stuck in a trading range between 1080 and 1115. I still think a visit to the low end of this range, possibly as low a s 1075, is likely before an upside breakout can develop.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway.

Dollar-Yen: The drop below the 87.00 level is starting to look like a false breakout. A move above 91 will mean that continuation up to 100 is likely.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 75.00.

GLD – February Gold: Gold closed below 1100 support yesterday. This means the trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months.

Google: Support is now at 565. This step upward will carry to 610.

Guesstimates on December 21, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1098-1110. The market remains stuck in a trading range between 1080 and 1115. I still think a visit to the low end of this range, possibly as low a s 1075, is likely before an upside breakout can develop.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway.

Dollar-Yen: The drop below the 87.00 level is starting to look like a false breakout. A move above 91 will mean that continuation up to 100 is likely.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 75.00.

GLD – February Gold: I still think gold has more to go on the upside. Meantime support is at 1100.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely. Support is at 1675.

Google: Support is now at 565. This step upward will carry to 610.

Big Ben

Here is my latest post on "The Art of Contrarian Trading".

Guesstimates on December 18, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1088-1100. The market remains stuck in a trading range between 1080 and 1115. I think a visit to the low end of this range, possibly as low a s 1075, is likely before an upside breakout can develop.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway.

Dollar-Yen: The drop below the 87.00 level is starting to look like a false breakout. A move above 91 will mean that continuation up to 100 is likely.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 75.00.

GLD – February Gold: I still think gold has more to go on the upside. Meantime support is now at 1100.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely. Support is at 1675.

Google: Support is now at 565. This step upward will carry to 610.

Sold one long unit at 1094.50 - a drop below 1090 is likely later today

Long one unit at 1094.25

Guesstimates on December 17, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1093-1105. I think the e-minis are headed for 1140.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway.

Dollar-Yen: The drop below the 87.00 level is starting to look like a false breakout. A move above 91 will mean that continuation up to 100 is likely.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 75.00.

GLD – February Gold: Gold continues to sag below what I think should be support. Still, I don't yet see a break in the rhythm of the up trend so I still think gold has more to go on the upside. Meantime support is now at 1100.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely. Support is at 1675.

Google: Support is now at 565. This step upward will carry to 610.

Guesstimates on December 16, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1103-1116. I think the e-minis are headed for 1140.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has broken decisively below support at 147.50. I think this means that a drop to 140 is underway.

Dollar-Yen: The drop below the 87.00 level is starting to look like a false breakout. A move above 91 will mean that continuation up to 100 is likely.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 75.00.

GLD – February Gold: Gold continues to sag below what I think should be support. Still, I don't yet see a break in the rhythm of the up trend so I still think gold has more to go on the upside. Meantime support is now at 1100.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely. Support is at 1675.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.

Hard to read

Here is an hourly bar chart of day session, e-mini trading in the March 2010 contract. As you can see the market has traded sideways for a month in a very narrow range with many gaps. The gaps show that most of the up and down movement within this range reflects trading in Europe and Asia while U.S. markets were closed. No one in the U.S. seems to see any need to adjust their portfolios, no doubt a reflection of the desire to lock in decent 2009 results after a horrible 2008.

The narrow range and low volume, dull activity makes this market hard to read. Even so, I have found that I rarely get repeated chances to sell near the high price of an important top. This makes me think that we are more likely to see a significant upside breakout from this range than a significant downside breakout. There is a small bit of evidence that the market wants to move higher during the next few days. On the chart you can see that yesterday's and today's day session activity has developed above the green dash line. When the market was above this line previously sellers took immediate advantage of the opportunity, but they haven't jumped the market this time, at least not yet.

I remain convinced that the e-minis will reach the 1140 level during the next few weeks.

Guesstimates on December 15, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1098-1010. I think the e-minis are headed for 1140.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has broken decisively below support at 147.50. I think this means that a drop to 140 is underway.

Dollar-Yen: The drop below the 87.00 level is starting to look like a false breakout. A move above 91 will mean that continuation up to 100 is likely.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 75.00.

GLD – February Gold: Gold continues to sag below what I think should be support. Still, I don't yet see a break in the rhythm of the up trend so I still think gold has more to go on the upside. Meantime support is now at 1100.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely. Support is at 1675.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.